Morning Grains Report 05/17/18

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – May 16
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed May 15, 2018 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING APRIL 2018
————————————————————————
Apr-18 Mar-18 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 10,478 10,478
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 1,098
WHEAT HRS 0 0 0 600
WHEAT HRW 8 798 0 798
WHEAT SRW 6 599 799 2,995
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 315 31,435 14,570 79,834
CORN YELLOW 6,783 676,877 464,628 2,059,871
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 5 499 1,598 5,492
SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 2,597 259,159 224,229 781,360
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 699
WHEAT HRS 28 2,795 4,990 25,547
WHEAT HRW 923 92,109 71,451 383,899
WHEAT SRW 385 38,421 6,886 85,222
WHEAT SWH 17 1,697 2,894 9,282
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 17
For the week ended May 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 63.1 131.7 23601.6 28196.4 2218.6 2057.8
hrw 19.1 59.0 9269.2 11902.9 465.2 464.5
srw -0.6 30.0 2519.5 2432.7 310.7 356.3
hrs 39.4 36.4 6128.5 8535.9 847.6 702.9
white 5.2 6.3 5280.0 4797.0 573.3 453.4
durum 0.0 0.0 404.4 528.0 21.8 80.8
corn 985.7 129.2 52617.4 52798.6 18424.1 2230.2
soybeans 281.9 224.7 55406.4 57355.1 10794.8 5549.4
soymeal 376.0 45.7 10527.7 9333.1 3111.0 323.4
soyoil 10.2 0.0 854.4 876.5 251.3 1.8
upland cotton 153.3 229.3 16190.8 13657.7 5572.6 4097.8
pima cotton 2.1 0.0 590.8 600.5 115.8 44.2
sorghum 59.4 38.0 5359.3 4310.5 618.5 38.0
barley -7.0 7.1 33.0 25.5 2.9 46.5
rice 35.9 0.0 2643.8 3218.3 441.0 11.2

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were mostly higher again yesterday. Traders are watching US and Black Sea weather for ideas on the next price direction, but Wheat is also a market looking for some consumptive demand. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest, but important growing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia have been dry. Some beneficial rains are in the forecast for Ukraine. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest to help speed crop development. Many southern Midwest areas missed out on the big rains over the weekend. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas. Western sections of the central and southern Great Plains could see some important rains. USDA showed that fieldwork has caught up in many areas in the past week. Progress in planting Spring Wheat moved ahead, and should increase with the warmer weather for the next week. There will be some rains and the overall pace could remain behind normal. Demand remains the big problem for Wheat traders. The competition from eastern Europe and the Black Sea area remains very tough, and US prices are currently above the competition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers again on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 482 July. Support is at 491, 487, and 485 July, with resistance at 499, 501, and 507 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 509, 504, and 503 July, with resistance at 516, 530, and 538 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 606, 600, and 593 July, and resistance is at 617, 620, and 627 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher after another day of quiet trading. Futures are trying to hold support near 1250 on the weekly charts. No one is doing much as buyers are waiting for lower prices and as producers wait for higher prices. Speculators have been mostly quiet as well. Sources in Arkansas say that planting has been active on warmer weather and that crops are finally starting to emerge. Some producers switched to Soybeans for some of the area due to price and the bad weather. Planting is done along the Gulf Coast. It remains very dry in Texas and producers are having to flush crops more than normal. There are worries that are starting to be heard about yield potential for the state. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers and storms off and on all week. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1222 July. Support is at 1247, 1243, and 1235 July, with resistance at 1263, 1272, and 1281 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower along with Soybeans and on some trade fears. The trade fears revolve around NAFTA and the failure to reach an agreement so far. Mexico in particular is a very strong Customer for US Corn and could look south if NAFTA blows up. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continues with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. Some think that production could drop another 10 million tons from the recent CONAB and USDA estimates. No big rains are currently in the forecast, and there are no rains in the forecast after this week. It is hard to rally the market at this time of year as the crop is getting planted in a timely way and amid generally good conditions. USDA showed planting progress above trade expectations last night. Strong planting progress was possible again this week, although some rains will be seen off and on through the week to keep the pace slower than some in the trade might expect. The most affected areas right now by planting delays are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Overnight News: US Ethanol producers used 311 million bushels of Corn last week. Ethanol stocks were down despite the strong production.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 394, and 393 July, and resistance is at 402, 405, and 407 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 236, 234, and 231 July, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 253 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on trade fears. Funds were the best sellers and were liquidating long positions on ideas that little will happen in the US-China trade talks. The US and China will enter into more talks this week to try to resolve the trade dispute, but the differences remain large and some Trump moves early in the week regarding ZTE are causing a big fuss in Washington. The might make it harder to compromise, and Trump is pushing for China to give into a lot of his demands, anyway. The tariff threats with China remain alive, and wire reports indicate that Chinese buyers are buying from anywhere but the US right now. In fact, there are now reports that China has overbought and that prices inside the country are moving sharply lower. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in much of the Midwest are planting Soybeans, and the planting pace last week was above trade expectations. Planting of Corn and Soybeans will increase in the north.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans down with objectives of 993, 992, and 981 July. Support is at 999, 995, and 989 July, and resistance is at 1012, 1014, and 1022 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 377.00, 364.00, and 362.00 July. Support is at 377.00, 374.00, and 370.00 July, and resistance is at 384.00, 391.00, and 392.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3050, 3000, and 2970 July, with resistance at 3100, 3120, and 3140 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in sympathy with price action in Chicago. The market had tried to rally with Chicago, but fell as Soybean oil fell late. New crop months have held firmer than old crop months amid lower than expected planted area estimates and unfavorable planting weather until now. The weather is improved, and some producer selling is seen. Charts show that trends are in a big trading range. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher on ideas that the market was oversold. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 524.00 and 517.00 July. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 531.00, 536.00, and 537.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2390, and 2280 August, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2500 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation this weekend Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 52 July 155 July 53 July 49 July 27-Jul
June 50 July 54 July 43 July
July 50 September 58 July 47 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 65 July 6-Jul 100 September July
July 89 July 3-Jul 98 September August
August 3-Aug 93 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 16
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 521.41 up 1.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 541.20 dn 4.30
2 Can 528.20 dn 4.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 574.20 dn 4.30
2 Can 561.20 dn 4.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May/Jun 622.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May/June 512.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May/Jun 2,430 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May/Jun 221.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9670)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,716 lots, or 4.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,578 3,578 3,578 0 0 286
Sep-18 3,689 3,701 3,662 3,678 3,694 3,682 -12 109,122 174,890
Nov-18 3,718 3,753 3,702 3,702 3,678 3,724 46 6 8
Jan-19 3,772 3,782 3,739 3,756 3,759 3,760 1 4,428 14,660
Mar-19 – – – 3,720 3,720 3,720 0 0 2
May-19 3,810 3,810 3,778 3,800 3,722 3,791 69 1,022 2,042
Jul-19 – – – 3,700 3,698 3,700 2 0 18
Sep-19 3,843 3,843 3,800 3,825 3,749 3,822 73 138 400
Nov-19 – – – 3,828 3,755 3,828 73 0 16
Corn
Turnover: 321,142 lots, or 5.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,758 1,766 1,757 1,764 1,757 1,763 6 32,374 202,662
Sep-18 1,769 1,775 1,765 1,768 1,767 1,770 3 230,868 803,584
Nov-18 1,797 1,797 1,790 1,793 1,795 1,793 -2 426 1,522
Jan-19 1,819 1,827 1,815 1,819 1,818 1,821 3 51,112 261,926
Mar-19 1,842 1,848 1,839 1,847 1,839 1,842 3 776 2,284
May-19 1,885 1,887 1,865 1,874 1,886 1,874 -12 5,586 3,248
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,777,284 lots, or 82.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,916 2,926 2,868 2,906 2,928 2,903 -25 274,650 160,920
Aug-18 2,972 2,985 2,936 2,971 3,000 2,957 -43 54 600
Sep-18 2,972 3,002 2,942 2,976 2,974 2,972 -2 1,960,050 2,819,076
Nov-18 3,005 3,033 2,975 3,005 2,994 2,997 3 1,822 5,722
Dec-18 3,007 3,012 3,005 3,007 3,023 3,007 -16 10 426
Jan-19 3,018 3,062 2,996 3,024 3,014 3,027 13 510,672 1,244,416
Mar-19 2,958 3,014 2,936 2,971 2,945 2,968 23 2,230 5,010
May-19 2,900 2,910 2,860 2,879 2,907 2,882 -25 27,796 58,382
Palm Oil
Turnover: 264,068 lots, or 13.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 5,068 5,068 5,068 5,068 5,068 5,068 0 4 2
Jul-18 – – – 4,996 4,996 4,996 0 0 2
Aug-18 5,086 5,146 5,086 5,146 5,068 5,124 56 28 12
Sep-18 5,060 5,076 5,026 5,066 5,062 5,054 -8 236,390 526,674
Oct-18 – – – 5,114 5,114 5,114 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,126 5,126 5,126 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,080 5,088 5,080 -8 0 0
Jan-19 5,086 5,104 5,056 5,100 5,092 5,082 -10 27,604 110,066
Feb-19 – – – 5,192 5,202 5,192 -10 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,240 5,250 5,240 -10 0 18
May-19 5,172 5,184 5,150 5,184 5,160 5,160 0 42 244
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 374,702 lots, or 21.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 5,660 5,660 5,586 5,628 5,728 5,624 -104 18 126
Aug-18 5,760 5,760 5,680 5,680 5,826 5,720 -106 4 10
Sep-18 5,740 5,752 5,708 5,744 5,742 5,732 -10 321,092 919,522
Nov-18 5,762 5,864 5,762 5,864 5,882 5,796 -86 6 24
Dec-18 – – – 5,908 5,908 5,908 0 0 22
Jan-19 5,862 5,888 5,850 5,884 5,886 5,868 -18 53,084 215,900
Mar-19 6,002 6,004 6,000 6,000 6,044 6,000 -44 34 70
May-19 6,000 6,000 5,898 5,974 5,990 5,964 -26 464 2,192
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.