AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower in most nearby contracts at midday. Pressure is coming from rains across the WCB over the weekend (and today). This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 1.097 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on August 16. That was down 13.13% from the week prior but 52.27% larger than the same week in 2017. Total YTD exports are now lagging last year by just 0.28% with just over 2 weeks left in the 17/18 MY. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show a 1% reduction to conditions at 69% gd/ex according to a Reuters poll of analysts. CFTC data on Friday showed spec traders trimming their net short position in corn futures and options by 4,743 contracts during the ending August 14, taking it to -24,962 contracts.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.61, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.75 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.87 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.94 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents in the green on Monday. Gains stem from reports that the US and China are planning a roadmap to end the trade dispute by mid-November but are being limited by rains rolling across the Midwest. Nearby soy meal is down 40 cents/ton, with soy oil up 32 points. Export Inspections of soybeans in the week of 8/16 totaled 639,001 MT. That was 4.5% lower than the same week of last year, but 9.9% larger than the previous week. Accumulated YTD exports are now 3.2% lower than the same time last year, as we head into the last 2 weeks of the MY. Analysts are expecting soybeans conditions to stay UNCH in this afternoon’s NASS report. The large spec funds in soybean futures and options added another 2,641 contracts to their net short position as of 8/14. That took their net position to -58,924 contracts.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.84 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.96, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.08, up 3 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.18 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $329.70, down $0.40

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.55, up $0.32

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing sharp losses of 12 to 16 cents in most front months at midday. The Monday morning Export Inspections report tallied all wheat shipments during the week of August 16 at just 345,375 MT. That was 29.14% lower than last week’s report and 41.72% below the same week in 2017. Spring wheat conditions are estimated UNCH from last week’s Crop Progress report. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed money managers in Chicago wheat futures and options at a net long position of 66,948 contracts. That was an increase of 2,361 contracts from the week prior and the largest reported net long position since September 2012. They also held a net long position of 62,652 contracts in KC wheat futures and options as of last Tuesday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.44 3/4, down 15 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.52, down 13 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.96, down 12 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are steady to 30 cents higher in most contracts, with nearby Aug down 2.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures are 42.5 cents lower in August, as most back months are higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 70 cents from the previous day at $149.59. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday morning, with the Ch/Se spread widening to $11.85. Choice boxes were up $1.98 at $213.36, while Select boxes were up 59 cents at $201.51. USDA FI weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 660,000 head including Saturday. That is up 15,000 head from the previous week on larger weekend slaughter and 25,000 head above the same week in 2017. Cash sales of $109-110 were transacted on Friday, with a few sales of $173 dressed as well. Both were down from the previous week.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $109.400, down $0.025,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $111.025, up $0.150,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.925, up $0.300,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.525, down $0.425

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.175, up $0.350

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.250, up $0.400

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing 87.5 cent to $2 losses in most contracts on Monday, following last week’s sharp gains. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.27 on August 16, to $52.94. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was delayed on Monday morning due to packer submission issues. The Friday afternoon average carcass value was at $66.77. The national base hog carcass value was down 51 cents in the Monday AM report, with the weighted average @ $40.07. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 2.459 million head through Saturday. That is well above last week and the same week last year.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $56.600, down $2.000,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $54.400, down $0.875

Feb 19 Hogs are at $60.775, down $0.875

Cotton

Cotton futures are posting 81 to 97 cent gains in most front months on Monday, with nearby Oct showing no volume. A weaker US Dollar index is supportive at the moment. Spec funds in cotton futures and options cut their net long position by 9,688 contracts to 76,672 contracts in the week ending August 14. The Cotlook A index was up 100 points from the previous day at 91.75 cents/lb on August 17. The weekly AWP was updated to 75.45 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 422 points from the previous week.

Dec 18 Cotton is at 82.33, up 94 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 82.52, up 81 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.920, up 82 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com